Carotid Wall Thickness is Predictive of Incident Clinical Stroke: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study
Lloyd E. Chambless1, Aaron R. Folsom2, Limin X. Clegg3, A. Richey Sharrett4, Eyal Shahar2, F. Javier Nieto5, Wayne D. Rosamond6 and Greg Evans7
1Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, NC 2Division of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota Minneapolis, MN 3National Cancer Institute Bethesda, MD 4National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Bethesda, MD 5Division of Epidemiology, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Baltimore, MD 6Division of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, NC 7Department of Public Health, Bowman Gray School of Medicine Winston-Salem, NC
Reprint requests to Dr. Lloyd E. Chambless, Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina School of Public Health, Chapel Hill, NC 27514.
Few studies have determined whether carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT) is associated prospectively with risk of first ischemic stroke. In the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, carotid IMT, an index of generalized atherosclerosis, was defined as the mean of IMT measured by B-mode ultrasonography at six sites of the carotid arteries. The authors assessed the relation of mean IMT to stroke incidence over 6–9 years' follow-up (1987–1995) among 7,865 women and 6,349 men aged 45–64 years without prior stroke at baseline in four US communities. There were 90 incident ischemic stroke events for women and 109 for men. In sex-specific Cox proportional hazards models adjusting only for age, race, and community, the hazard rate ratios comparing extreme mean IMT values (1 mm) to values less than 0.6 mm were 8.5 for women (95% confidence interval: 3.5, 20.7) and 3.6 for men (95% confidence interval: 1.5, 9.2). The relation was graded, and models with cubic splines indicated significant nonlinearity, with hazards increasing more rapidly at lower IMTs than at higher IMTs. Thus, models using linear IMT values substantially underestimate the strength of the association at lower IMTs. The strength of the association was reduced by the inclusion of putative stroke risk factors, but it remained elevated at higher IMTs. Hence, mean carotid IMT is a noninvasive predictor of future ischemic stroke incidence. Am J Epidemiol 2000;151:478–87
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